Od 2016. godine Srbija je kupila deviza više nego što ih je prodala, za 4,5 milijarde evra. Kreatori monetarne politike ističu da je to rezultat veće ponude od tražnje. Zašto je jak dinar postao privlačan i stranim kupcima hartija od vrednosti?
Iako je pandemije usporila ekonomsku aktivnost, Narodna banka je od početka godine više kupila deviza, nego što je prodala – razlika je 900 miliona evra.
Dinar je izdržao krizu pa su dugoročne dinarske hartije od vrednosti uključene u renomirani Džej pi Morgan indeks. Naše hartije od vrednosti kupila i Centralna banka Singapura.
“Zahvaljujući širenju baze investitora, koji ulažu u dinarske obveznice prinosi na sedmogodišnju obevznicu Republike Srbije smanjeni su na sekundarnom tržištu tokom jula za 30 baznih poena. Po tom osnovu može se očekivati dodatno smanjenje servisiranja javnog duga”, navodi guvernerka NBS Jorgovanka Tabaković.
Narodna banka ističe da je jak dinar rezultat boljeg rada domaćih kompanija. Rastu izvoz, investicije ali i devizni priliv od turizma.
“Dakle raste i ponuda ali raste i tražnja. Naravno raste uvoz. Ponuda raste bržim tempom. To znči da raste izvoz i priliv direktnih stranih investicija”, ukazuje Nikola Dragašević, direktor odeljenja u NBS.
Pojedini ekonomisti smatraju da jačanje dinara u odnosu na evro nije održivo ukoliko ga ne prati rast produktivnosti. Ipak, analize kažu da je naš model ciljane inflacije i fluktuirajućeg kursa deo specifičnog rešenja, preuzet i od uspešnog modela Češke.
“Ukoliko vi jačate makroekonomsko okruženje, ekonomsku stabilnost nikakvo jačanje, a nikako jačanje domaće valute za dinar, dva, tri nema efekte na izvoz ili uvoz. Pre svega morate da se fokusirate na te strukturne politike”, navodi Milan Trajković, direktor u NBS.
Srbija godišnje ostvaruje spoljno bilansni suficit od oko milijardu evra, zahvaljujući povećanom izvozu i privlačenju investicija. Toliko su povećane i devizne rezerve koje trenutno iznose 14,6 milijardi evra od čega je 12 odsto u zlatu.
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