Potres koji se osetio u Beogradu i u Srbiji posledica je jakog zemljotres, koji je danas posle podneva pogodio opet Hrvatsku i koji je bio jačine 6,3 stepena.
Sada možemo očekivati u narednih 10 do 15 godina da će se u nekom drugom prostoru Balkana opet desiti zemljotres vrlo visokih magnituda, teško je reći gde, ali postoje prostori u Makedoniji, u Bugarskoj, Rumuniji, pa i u istočnoj Srbiji u kojima dugi niz godina nisu.
Hrvatska ne bi trebalo da očekuje jači zemljotres od ovog koji ju je danas pogodio od 6,3 stepena po Rihteru, kaže za Telegraf.rs seizmolog Slavica Radovanović. Ona dodaje se on ne očekuje ni u blizini, ali da je ovaj zemljotres još jedan dokaz da je očigledno da je počeo ciklus jakih zemljotresa na prostoru Balkana.“A zašto? Zato što je seizmička aktivnost na Apeninskom poluostrvu imala nekoliko snažnih italijanskih zemljotresa. Mi seizmolozi smo tada rekli da će se sigurno preliti ta seizmička aktivnost na prostoru Balkanskog poluostrva gde dug niz godina nije bilo najjačih zemljotresa, a naročito u tom primorskom delu gde je poslednji bio u Crnoj Gori 1979. godine. Znači, nakon toga dogodila se Albanija koja, takođe, jako dugo niz godina nije imala jakih zemljotresa. Onda je započela seizmička aktivnost kod Zagreba da bi se dogodila dva juče, i ovaj zemljotres danas kod Petrinje – objašnjava Slavica Radovanović, bivša direktorka Seizmološkog zavoda Srbije, a sada direktorka firme seismo.sr.
Prema njenim rečima, kada se proletos dogodio zemljotres kod Zagreba onda se poremetila ta krhka ravnoteža koja je postojala, pa su se dogodila ova dva zemljotresa juče kod Petrinje i ovaj danas magnitude 6,3 stepena po Rihterovoj skali.
“Maksimalna očekivana magnituda za Zagreb je, takođe, preko 6 jedinica po Rihteru, kao što je ovaj bio u Petrinji, ali ne dešavaju se dva zemljotresa tako bliskih magnituda, niti prostorno blizu jedan drugom, niti vremenski. Potrebno je da prođe značajnije vreme da bi se u tom istom regionu, primera radi Zagreb-Petrinje obnovio tako jak zemljotres. Zato niko u tom prostoru nema razloga da sada strahuje. Ali, postoje drugi prostori na Balkanskom poluostrvu gde jako dugo nije bilo jakih zemljotresa, a seizmička aktivnost je lagano rasla”, kaže ona:
“Kada kažem na Balkanskom poluostrvu, znači i čak od Istanbula, od samog kraja tog prostora, gde dugo nije bilo jakih zemljotresa.”
“Kroz istoriju, bilo je situacija da se u nekoliko godina dogodi nekoliko jakih zemljotresa. Setite se 1963. bio je u Makedoniji, da bi 1969. godine bio u Banjaluci. Bilo je potrebno nekoliko godina da prođe da se desi jak zemljotres, uslovno rečeno, u istom prostoru. Sada možemo očekivati u narednih 10 do 15 godina da će se u nekom drugom prostoru Balkana opet desiti zemljotres vrlo visokih magnituda, pri čemu u Srbiji zemljotresi nemaju ovako visoke magnitude kakav je bio petrinjski. Naši maksimalni zemljotresi su imali magnitude do 6 jedinica Rihterove skale.”
Pogledajte OVDE kako je zemljotres izgledao u Srbiji, a OVDE kako je izgledao u Zagrebu.
U ovom kontekstu, sagovornica kaže, da je seizmička aktivnost na Balkanu očigledno počela.
“Koje će to drugo žarište biti, to je jako teško reći kao što nismo mogli da znamo da će Hrvatsku opet pogoditi baš danas. Jako je teško reći gde, ali postoje prostori i u Makedoniji, i u Bugarskoj, Rumuniji, pa i u istočnoj Srbiji delovi u kojima mogu da se dogode jake zemljotresi a dugi niz godina nisu – navodi Radovanovićeva i dodaje da Kraljevo i Mionica nisu srpski maksimalni zemljotresi:
“Naši najjači zemljotresi su onakvi kakav je bio Rudnik, kakav je bio Svilajnac i kakav je bio Lazarevac. Tako da, treba pratiti seizmičku aktivnost. Svaka situacija u kojoj se desi jak zemljotres za koji ništa ne sledi samo svedoči u prilog tome da se seizmička energija skuplja”, objasnila je ona za Telegraf.rs.
Evropskomediteranski seizmološki centar (EMSC) saopštio je da se u Hrvatskoj za 31 sat dogodilo 14 potresa. Poslednji je bio u 12.34 časova i magnitude 4,4 stepena. Pre nego što je Petrinje pogodio najjači zemljotres od 6,3, jedan se dogodio i tačno u podne i bio je jačine 3, 7. Njemu su prethodila još dva manja podrhtavanja tla.
Juče su se u Petrinju dogodila dva zemljotres jačine 5 stepeni po Rihterovoj skali.
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