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“Podivljale” cene uljarica i žitarica – čeka li nas poskupljenje hleba i mesa

“Podivljale” cene uljarica i žitarica – čeka li nas poskupljenje hleba i mesa

20/05/2021

Autor: 

Info Press

Izvor: RTS

Foto: Zdravlje sa juga

Cene uljarica i žitarica na berzama širom sveta dostižu višegodišnji maksimum, pa tako i u Srbiji. Soja nije na višegodišnjem, već na istorijskom maksimumu – ona košta 85,5 dinara i to bez PDV-a (sa PDV-om oko 94). Stručnjaci prognoziraju da će se rast nastaviti, a treba li zbog toga da se brinemo da će poskupeti meso, hleb i druge osnovne životne namirnice?

Srpski ratari godinama su punili svoje silose i skladišta, odlažući prodaju robe zbog niskih otkupnih cena. Ove godine će, čini se, za razliku od prethodnih uspeti da napune i svoje džepove.

Cena pšenice, kukuruza, suncokreta i soje od prošle jeseni počela je da skače. Za godinu dana soja je skuplja za 103,57 odsto, a kukuruz za 72,78 odsto, pokazuju podaci Produktne berze u Novom Sadu. 

Sojom se sada trguje za oko 94 dinara po kilogramu (sa PDV-om), što je najviša vrednost ikada postignuta na berzi u Novom Sadu. Kukuruz se prodaje za oko 27 dinara, na nivou od pre desetak godina.

Strah od gladi jedan od glavnih razloga poskupljenja 

Sva pomeranja cena uljarica i žitarica, koje su berzanski proizvodi, na berzama širom sveta utiču i na vrednost ovih roba u Srbiji. Manje promene su učestale, ali ovako tekstonski poremećaji nisu toliko česti, navode stručnjaci.

Agroekonomista Milan Prostran kaže za RTS da je jedan od glavnih uzroka za poskupljenje žitarica i uljarica pandemija koronavirusa.

“Pandemija je učinila da zapadne i bogate zemlje počinju da stvaraju zalihe, oni nikada nisu znali šta su rizici nemanja roba, one pokušavaju da spasavaju i da se suzdrže od plasmana i povećaju rezerve jer su njihovi građani postali uplašeni”, objašnjava Prostran.

Dodaje da je ista situacija pogodila čitavo tržište sirovina, među kojima i plemenite metale i drvo, koje su u vreme krize postale vrlo atraktivne.

Prognoze svetskih stručnjaka su da se trend rasta cena žitarica i uljarica neće zaustaviti. Štaviše, očekuje se da do sredine 2022. godine one nastave da rastu, ukazuje Prostran. 

Soja iz Srbije posebno je atraktivna za izvoz, s obzirom na to da ona nije GMO, pa je samim tim kvalitetnija i skuplja od soje koja se proizvodi u ostatku sveta, pre svega u zemljama Južne Amerike.

Treba li da strahujemo da će poskupeti hleb 

Zbog poskupljenja ratarskih kultura, očekivano je poskupljenje osnovnih životnih namirnica, ispred svih hleba.

Agroekonomista Milan Prostran smatra da ipak ne treba da strahujemo jer imamo još zaliha pšenice. Takođe, kako kaže, sa cenom hleba se “ne treba igrati” jer je to osetljiva kategorija, pre svega ako se posmatra sa socijalnog aspekta.

“Mislim da neće doći do potrebe za povećanjem cene, a ako dođe do toga, to država može da iskontroliše, kada je reč o ceni brašna tipa 500, koje mora da se nađe u prometu pekara 30 odsto. Država ima zalihe pšenice i može da pusti po nešto nižoj ceni”, navodi Prostran.

Da ne bi trebalo da se strahuje da će hleb poskupeti, ukazuje i Veljko Jovanović iz Privredne komore Srbije.

“Povećanje cene pšenice bi moglo da se očekuje, ali ne očekujemo dramatične posledice po ostale cene u lancu vrednosti”, ističe Jovanović.

Prema njegovim rečima, podaci pokazuju da imamo dovoljne količine kukuruza, pšenice, suncokreta i soje kako za izvoz, tako i za domaće potrebe.

Ulje neće uskoro pojeftiniti

Kada je reč o ceni ulja, koje je već poskupelo, i sada se na rafovima prodavnica u Srbiji prodaje za 180-190 dinara, Jovanović ukazuje da je to posledica rasta cena svih ulja na globalnom nivou.

“Trenutno je cena jednog litra rafinisinog ulja od suncokreta u Republici Srbiji niža nego cena sirovog ulja od suncokreta u regionu i svetu, tako da domaći proizvođači određenim porastom cena štite snabdevenost domaćeg tržišta ulja pakovanja od jedne litre do nove žetve suncokreta jer je došlo do globalnog disbalansa na tržištu ulja”, ukazuje Jovanović.

Za sada se, kaže, ne očekuje pojeftinjenje rafinisanog suncokretovog ulja, jer u prilog tome ide i činjenica da se očekuje i skok cene sirovine u narednoj žetvi.

Poskupljenje mesa gotovo izvesno

Na povećanje cene kukuruza dodatno bi moglo da utiče i to što je setva ove godine skuplja za čak 20 odsto. To je rezultat poskupljenja mineralnog đubriva i semena.

Kada poskupljuje kukuruz, očekuje se i poskupljenje svinjskog mesa, s obzirom na to da je ova žitarica jedan od glavnih sastojaka stočne hrane.

Agroekonomista Milan Prostran ukazuje da će zbog svega toga biti pomeranja u ceni svežeg mesa.

“Ako seljak tovi svinju sa koncentratom u koji je ušao kukuruz od 24-27 dinara, tu nema ekonomije”, navodi Prostran.

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“Podivljale” cene uljarica i žitarica – čeka li nas poskupljenje hleba i mesa

20/05/2021
Autor:
Info Press
Izvor: RTS
Foto: Zdravlje sa juga

Cene uljarica i žitarica na berzama širom sveta dostižu višegodišnji maksimum, pa tako i u Srbiji. Soja nije na višegodišnjem, već na istorijskom maksimumu – ona košta 85,5 dinara i to bez PDV-a (sa PDV-om oko 94). Stručnjaci prognoziraju da će se rast nastaviti, a treba li zbog toga da se brinemo da će poskupeti meso, hleb i druge osnovne životne namirnice?

Srpski ratari godinama su punili svoje silose i skladišta, odlažući prodaju robe zbog niskih otkupnih cena. Ove godine će, čini se, za razliku od prethodnih uspeti da napune i svoje džepove.

Cena pšenice, kukuruza, suncokreta i soje od prošle jeseni počela je da skače. Za godinu dana soja je skuplja za 103,57 odsto, a kukuruz za 72,78 odsto, pokazuju podaci Produktne berze u Novom Sadu. 

Sojom se sada trguje za oko 94 dinara po kilogramu (sa PDV-om), što je najviša vrednost ikada postignuta na berzi u Novom Sadu. Kukuruz se prodaje za oko 27 dinara, na nivou od pre desetak godina.

Strah od gladi jedan od glavnih razloga poskupljenja 

Sva pomeranja cena uljarica i žitarica, koje su berzanski proizvodi, na berzama širom sveta utiču i na vrednost ovih roba u Srbiji. Manje promene su učestale, ali ovako tekstonski poremećaji nisu toliko česti, navode stručnjaci.

Agroekonomista Milan Prostran kaže za RTS da je jedan od glavnih uzroka za poskupljenje žitarica i uljarica pandemija koronavirusa.

“Pandemija je učinila da zapadne i bogate zemlje počinju da stvaraju zalihe, oni nikada nisu znali šta su rizici nemanja roba, one pokušavaju da spasavaju i da se suzdrže od plasmana i povećaju rezerve jer su njihovi građani postali uplašeni”, objašnjava Prostran.

Dodaje da je ista situacija pogodila čitavo tržište sirovina, među kojima i plemenite metale i drvo, koje su u vreme krize postale vrlo atraktivne.

Prognoze svetskih stručnjaka su da se trend rasta cena žitarica i uljarica neće zaustaviti. Štaviše, očekuje se da do sredine 2022. godine one nastave da rastu, ukazuje Prostran. 

Soja iz Srbije posebno je atraktivna za izvoz, s obzirom na to da ona nije GMO, pa je samim tim kvalitetnija i skuplja od soje koja se proizvodi u ostatku sveta, pre svega u zemljama Južne Amerike.

Treba li da strahujemo da će poskupeti hleb 

Zbog poskupljenja ratarskih kultura, očekivano je poskupljenje osnovnih životnih namirnica, ispred svih hleba.

Agroekonomista Milan Prostran smatra da ipak ne treba da strahujemo jer imamo još zaliha pšenice. Takođe, kako kaže, sa cenom hleba se “ne treba igrati” jer je to osetljiva kategorija, pre svega ako se posmatra sa socijalnog aspekta.

“Mislim da neće doći do potrebe za povećanjem cene, a ako dođe do toga, to država može da iskontroliše, kada je reč o ceni brašna tipa 500, koje mora da se nađe u prometu pekara 30 odsto. Država ima zalihe pšenice i može da pusti po nešto nižoj ceni”, navodi Prostran.

Da ne bi trebalo da se strahuje da će hleb poskupeti, ukazuje i Veljko Jovanović iz Privredne komore Srbije.

“Povećanje cene pšenice bi moglo da se očekuje, ali ne očekujemo dramatične posledice po ostale cene u lancu vrednosti”, ističe Jovanović.

Prema njegovim rečima, podaci pokazuju da imamo dovoljne količine kukuruza, pšenice, suncokreta i soje kako za izvoz, tako i za domaće potrebe.

Ulje neće uskoro pojeftiniti

Kada je reč o ceni ulja, koje je već poskupelo, i sada se na rafovima prodavnica u Srbiji prodaje za 180-190 dinara, Jovanović ukazuje da je to posledica rasta cena svih ulja na globalnom nivou.

“Trenutno je cena jednog litra rafinisinog ulja od suncokreta u Republici Srbiji niža nego cena sirovog ulja od suncokreta u regionu i svetu, tako da domaći proizvođači određenim porastom cena štite snabdevenost domaćeg tržišta ulja pakovanja od jedne litre do nove žetve suncokreta jer je došlo do globalnog disbalansa na tržištu ulja”, ukazuje Jovanović.

Za sada se, kaže, ne očekuje pojeftinjenje rafinisanog suncokretovog ulja, jer u prilog tome ide i činjenica da se očekuje i skok cene sirovine u narednoj žetvi.

Poskupljenje mesa gotovo izvesno

Na povećanje cene kukuruza dodatno bi moglo da utiče i to što je setva ove godine skuplja za čak 20 odsto. To je rezultat poskupljenja mineralnog đubriva i semena.

Kada poskupljuje kukuruz, očekuje se i poskupljenje svinjskog mesa, s obzirom na to da je ova žitarica jedan od glavnih sastojaka stočne hrane.

Agroekonomista Milan Prostran ukazuje da će zbog svega toga biti pomeranja u ceni svežeg mesa.

“Ako seljak tovi svinju sa koncentratom u koji je ušao kukuruz od 24-27 dinara, tu nema ekonomije”, navodi Prostran.

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